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The Sickos Committee’s Weather Travel and Football Master Almanac Notebook. (SCWTFMAN) - The Big Sky Conference Outlook.

The Sickos Committee’s Weather Travel and Football Master Almanac Notebook. (SCWTFMAN) - The Big Sky Conference Outlook.

July 24, 2023

Welcome to the Sickos Committee’s Weather, Travel & Football Master Almanac Notebook aka the SCWTFMAN. Here in our SCWTFMAN we will attempt to forecast the upcoming 2023 college football season by using our Sickos Committee alert system. We’re going to do this in the Farmer’s Almanac style. If you don’t know what a Farmers' Almanac is, basically it provides long-range weather predictions for both the U.S. and Canada. We will be applying our forecast to all of Division I in the United States. We’re trying to predict what the upcoming season holds for all Division I teams in college football using our Sickos Committee Weather Alert System.

First we will preview the 128 FCS teams in a conference by conference breakdown over the next coming weeks. Then we will get to the 133 FBS teams for a total of 261 team previews in all.

Will these previews be long winded and incredibly in depth? No. Will these previews be mostly based on “vibes” as assessed by the Sickos Committee weather forecasters? Yes.

Basically, we’re going to try to assess the team as a Sickos Warning, Watch or Advisory, give you their record last year, provide a little blurb about the team and for the FCS version to advise you of any of their games against the FBS and interesting schedule tidbits. We will do a couple of parts here for the substack as we can’t fit all the teams in one post. Let’s do the FCS Conferences in Alphabetical Order. We may change our mind.

The Big Sky Conference

Cal Poly Mustangs

Last Year - 2-9 Overall and 1-7 in the Big Sky
New Head Coach Paul Wulff - Former Head Coach at Eastern Washington, Wazzu (9-40 in his time in Pullman) and promoted from O-Line Coach to the Head Coaching position. They haven’t had a winning season since 2016.
One FBS game at San Jose State and a brutal stretch of conference games at Montana State, at Idaho and at Sacramento State
Rating - Sickos Watch - We don’t expect much here but will watch with curiosity.

Eastern Washington

Last Year - 3-8 Overall and 2-6 in the Big Sky
They were 10-3 in 2021, dropped to 3-8 last year, not sure what to expect this year
One FBS game at Fresno State and they start against North Dakota State in Minneapolis, then Fresno and home against Southeastern Louisiana. They could very well be 0-3 heading into conference play.
Rating - Sickos Watch - Was last year an aberration or a sign of things to come?

Idaho

Last Year - 7-5 Overall and 6-2 in the Big Sky - Made FCS Playoffs finished ranked 18th
Coach Jason Eck has the Vandals fired up and heading in the right direction. The Vandals have some preseason hype and are as high as 4th in some preseason FCS polls.
Two FBS games at Nevada and at Cal. The Vandals have a shot to maybe steal one or who knows maybe both of those games. They host their toughest Big Sky opponents Sacramento State, Montana State and Montana all with Kibbie Domefield advantage.
Rating - Sickos Advisory - We think the Vandals could be really good this year.

Idaho State

Last Year - 1-11 Overall and 1-7 in the Big Sky
Their Head Coach resigned last year to become Assistant Head Coach and Special Teams Coordinator at Arizona State after his 1st season. They hired new Head Coach Cody Hawkins to lead the program this year. That’s right Dan Hawkins’ son is the Head Coach. He’s only 35 too.
Two FBS games at San Diego State and at Utah State to start the year. Also, at Montana, at Sacramento State and at Idaho in conference. They’ve been 1-11 in the past 2 years and this schedule may not help too much. But their games at home in the Holt Arena set up nicely to possibly double or triple last year’s win total which Pocatello would welcome.
Rating - Sickos Watch - However, Sickos Warning vs Northern Colorado on 9/23 and Father vs Son on 11/11.

Montana

Last Year - 8-5 Overall and 4-4 in the Big Sky, Made FCS Playoffs finished ranked 14th
They’ve got a new QB and some preseason hype at 10th in some FCS polls.
No FBS teams on the schedule but they welcome the back to back Division II Champions Ferris State in the 3rd week of the season. Color us curious about that one.
Rating - Sickos Advisory - They should be good but we’re not sure how good.

Montana State

Last Year - 12-2 Overall and 8-0 in the Big Sky (Conference Co-Champions), Made FCS the Semis, finished ranked 4th
Really not much to say here but they are preseason ranked 3rd in most polls and it’s well deserved, they’re a great team.
No FBS teams on the schedule but they do have a rematch with South Dakota State who knocked them out of the FCS semifinals in Week 2.
Rating - Sickos Advisory - They’re good, maybe first National Title since 1984 good? We’ll see.

Northern Arizona

Last Year - 3-8 Overall and 2-6 in the Big Sky
Had a wild season last year with seven one-possession games, if you flip a few of those maybe they finish above .500. Also took Montana State to the wire in the Skydome.
One FBS game which is mandated by the state of Arizona. This year they get the Jedd Fisch led Wildcats, whom they upset in 2021 in Fisch’s first year at the helm.
Rating - Sickos Warning - The Skydome is underrated for wildness and this team has a propensity for playing really close games no matter the level of competition.

Northern Colorado

Last Year - 3-8 Overall and 2-6 in the Big Sky
They fired Coach Ed McCaffery two days after the season ended and hired Ed Lamb from BYU’s Assistant Head Coach position. Coach Lamb coached at Southern Utah winning two conference titles in his time there going 45-47 overall.
One FBS game at Wazzu and they get to avoid Montana State but they get Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian in the non-conference, two solid Texas FCS programs and one of them was a FCS playoff semifinalist.
Rating - Sickos Warning - No idea what to expect here and not sure of the state of the program after their previous Head Coach. Could it get worse before getting better? Or will it be a quick turn around? Maybe slight improvement? We’re curious here to see what the new leadership will do this year. Their game vs Idaho State on 9/23 may tell us a good bit.

Portland State

Last Year - 4-7 Overall and 3-5 in the Big Sky
Head Coach Bruce Barnam is in his 9th season but he has two brand new Offensive and Defensive Coordinators. They nearly upset San Jose State last year in the first game of the season. One win last year was against Lincoln in California, a program that started in 2021. Two wins were one-possession games and the other was Northern Colorado with their Head Coach heading out the door.
Two FBS games at Oregon and at Wyoming back to back to start the season. However, in their 8 Big Sky games, 6 of their opponents were below .500 last year.
Rating - Sickos Warning - Could they get some easy Big Sky wins and sneak into the FCS playoffs? Or could it be another year of randomly alternating close game wins and blowout losses?

Sacramento State

Last Year - 12-1 Overall and 8-0 in the Big Sky (Conference Co-Champions), made FCS Quarters but lost to Incarnate Word in one of the most insane games last year 66-63. Finished ranked 5th.
Their Head Coach Troy Taylor was hired by Stanford and they promoted their Defensive Coordinator Andy Thompson to Head Coach.
One FBS Game against Stanford who just took their Head Coach, that’ll be interesting. They return a lot of talent but the Week 4 game at Idaho could tell us if they are a threat to win the Big Sky again this year.
Rating - Sickos Watch - Very curious if they take a step back under the new Head Coach or if they continue to extend their incredible 19 game Conference undefeated streak.

UC Davis

Last Year - 6-5 Overall and 5-3 in the Big Sky
Nearly upset South Dakota State 24-22 last year. Lost to 4 out of 5 ranked teams on their schedule but beat 15th ranked Idaho. Averaged 50.5 points in their wins but averaged 18.4 points in their losses.
One FBS game against Oregon State which will be very tough. However, the Big Sky sets-up very nice for them and they only face three Big Sky teams who were above .500 in 2022, two of those games are at home.
Rating - Sickos Watch - Week 5 and 6 against Montana and at Weber State will see if this team is an FCS Playoff team this year. Sickos Warning for Father vs Son Head Coach match-up on 11/11 vs Idaho State.

Weber State

Last Year - 10-3 Overall and 6-2 in the Big Sky, Made FCS Playoffs, lost in 2nd round.
Their Head Coach went to BYU to be the new Defensive Coordinator. Their new Head Coach is Mickey Mental, a former Notre Dame (OF OHIO) Head Coach moves up from Offensive Coordinator. Also, two of their three losses were to Montana State, both in Bozeman which was a house of horrors last year for the Wildcats. They lost by 8 points each time, including a game where they gave the Bobcats four safeties.
One FBS game at Utah this year, which won’t likely be much fun. A relatively easy Big Sky schedule with an early chance at redemption when they welcome Montana State in Week 4, a week after Utah.
Rating - Sickos Advisory - They should be good enough to get to the FCS Playoffs but how far can they go?

This has been an excerpt from the Sickos Committee’s Weather, Travel & Football Master Almanac Notebook.